Wisconsin Public Radio & St. Norbert College
Survey Center
THE WISCONSIN SURVEY – FALL
2005
GOVERNOR
DOYLE APPROVAL AND
GUBERNATORIAL
ELECTION MATCH-UPS
FOR RELEASE ON: WEDNESDAY NOV. 16.
Survey
Information:
Number
of Adult Wisconsin Resident Respondents:
400
Interview
Period: October 31 – November 11, 2005
Margin
of Error: +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level.
Contact:
Wendy
Scattergood
Assistant
Professor of Political Science, St. Norbert College Survey Center
DePere,
WI 54115
(920)
403-3491
wendy.scattergood@snc.edu
The Approval
Rating for Governor Doyle is 64%
How satisfied are you with the way Governor Doyle is doing his job
overall. Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat
dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Very
Satisfied......................................................... 10%
Somewhat
Satisfied................................................. 54%
Somewhat
Dissatisfied........................................... 20%
Very
Dissatisfied.................................................... 13%
Not Sure ................................................................... 3%
Refused..................................................................... 0%
|
|
Fall ‘03 |
Spring ‘03 |
Spring ‘05 |
Fall '05 |
|
Very Satisfied |
12% |
15% |
10% |
10% |
|
Somewhat Satisfied |
53% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
|
Somewhat Dissatisfied |
19% |
15% |
24% |
20% |
|
Very Dissatisfied |
14% |
9% |
10% |
13% |
|
Not Sure |
3% |
9% |
4% |
3% |
The Governor’s approval
rating has changed little over the course of his term. The differences among all of the ratings are
within the error margins for the survey.
Approval ratings for the
governor were highly related to party identification. Approval among Democrats
was 88% compared to just 40% for Republicans, but 61% of Independents approve
of the job the governor is doing as do 58% of those who adhere to other political
parties. When party identification is controlled for, other demographic
differences in approval of the Governor drop out.
In Governor’s Race Match-Ups, Jim Doyle Leads Over
Mark Green by 13% and Over Scott Walker by 15%
If the
election for Wisconsin Governor were held today, and the race were between
Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican Mark Green as the major party nominees, would
you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle, Republican Mark Green, or an
independent/third party candidate? (ROTATE)
Democrat Jim Doyle 45%
Republican
Mark Green 32%
A
Third Party or Independent Candidate 10%
Not
Sure 13%
Refused <1%
In a
different match-up, if the race were between Democrat Jim Doyle and Republican
Scott Walker, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat Jim Doyle,
Republican Scott Walker, or an independent/third party candidate? (ROTATE)
Democrat Jim Doyle 46%
Republican
Scott Walker 31%
Independent/Third
Party 9%
Not
Sure 14%
Refused <1%
While Jim Doyle leads the
Republican contenders by a significant margin, that margin is roughly equal to
the percentage of voters who are “note sure” for whom they are going to vote.
Also note that these reflect all respondents to the survey. At this very early
juncture, we did not ask just “likely voters.”
Obviously the results are partisan in nature, but what
is interesting is the “not sure” response differences between the Republican
challengers and among the Independents who often are the crucial difference in
Wisconsin elections. The two tables below read across, so for example, in the
second table, among Independents, 35% said they would vote for Doyle compared
to 31% for Walker, while 20% were not sure.
|
|
Doyle |
Green |
Third Party |
Not Sure |
|
Democrats |
86% |
6% |
1% |
6% |
|
Republicans |
10% |
70% |
6% |
14% |
|
Independents |
40% |
18% |
28% |
15% |
|
Other |
31% |
17% |
35% |
17% |
|
|
Doyle |
Walker |
Third Party |
Not Sure |
|
Democrats |
86% |
5% |
3% |
6% |
|
Republicans |
13% |
63% |
6% |
18% |
|
Independents |
35% |
31% |
15% |
20% |
|
Other |
31% |
17% |
35% |
17% |
Slightly
More Respondents Felt They Would be Better
Off (40%) Financially Next Year Than Felt They Would be Worse Off (38%).
Do you expect that at this
time NEXT year you will be
financially better off than now, or worse off than now?
Better off than now...................................................... 40%
Worse off than now..................................................... 38%
Same (volunteered)...................................................... 18%
Not Sure..................................................................... 4%
Refused / NA.............................................................. <1%
|
|
Better |
Same |
Worse |
|
Oct-94 |
50% |
31% |
15% |
|
Oct-95 |
46% |
21% |
26% |
|
Oct-96 |
56% |
19% |
15% |
|
Oct-97 |
54% |
25% |
14% |
|
Oct-98 |
56% |
21% |
17% |
|
Oct-99 |
63% |
15% |
20% |
|
Oct-00 |
64% |
20% |
9% |
|
Mar-02 |
54% |
22% |
15% |
|
Oct-02 |
56% |
13% |
22% |
|
Mar-03 |
53% |
17% |
26% |
|
Oct-03 |
57% |
14% |
22% |
|
Apr-04 |
57% |
19% |
16% |
|
Apr-05 |
42% |
25% |
29% |
|
Oct-05 |
40% |
18% |
38% |
|
Median |
55% |
20% |
19% |
As
seen in the table and graph above, the percentage of respondents who feel they
will be better off next year financially continues to drop and is at an all
time low for the survey. Similarly, the percentage of those feeling they will
be worse off next year rose significantly over last spring and reflects a high
for the survey.