New poll shows Harris maintaining lead over Trump among Wisconsin voters

A Marquette University Law School poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining a 4-point lead over former Republican President Donald Trump among registered Wisconsin voters. The survey also shows Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin edging ahead of Republican business executive Eric Hovde.

The Marquette University Law School’s survey of registered voters found that 52 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for Harris while 48 percent plan to vote for Trump. Third party candidates on Wisconsin ballots received around 6 percent.

The new survey data on the presidential race has the same spread — 52 to 48 —from the law school’s last poll, released Sept. 11.

Marquette University Law School Pollster Charles Franklin noted that independents in Wisconsin have shifted their preferences since Harris replaced Democratic President Joe Biden in July. He said polling showed they favored Trump when Biden was still in the race and and even in the first survey conducted when Harris launched her campaign. Franklin said the two most recent polls show 60 percent of respondents identifying as independents saying they’ll vote for Harris.

“They could still change their minds,” said Franklin. “Sampling error could still play a role here. But seeing it twice in a row, I think, is worth noting.”

In Wisconsin’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, Baldwin expanded her lead over Hovde to 7 percentage points, with 53 percent of respondents saying they’ll vote for Baldwin and 46 percent saying they’ll vote for Hovde.

The law school’s September survey showed Baldwin leading Hovde among registered voters 52-48.

Voter enthusiasm hits all-time high for the summer

With just 33 days until the November election, the Marquette poll found respondents’ enthusiasm to vote hit an all-time high for the summer with 67 percent of those surveyed saying they’re very enthusiastic to cast their ballots.

When broken down by party identification, Democratic voters reported a major boost in very enthusiastic voters from a low of 40 percent in June, when Biden was still the party’s expected nominee, to a high of 71 percent in the latest survey.

There’s also been a notable increase in the number of independent voters saying they’re very enthusiastic to vote in November. In June, just 30 percent said they were very enthusiastic. The latest survey saw that number grow to 50 percent.

Enthusiasm has stayed relatively steady among Republicans this summer. In June, 57 percent reported being very enthusiastic about casting their ballots. The latest results show that number has ticked up to 67 percent. 

The Marquette Law School surveyed 882 registered voters in Wisconsin between Sept. 18 and Sept. 26. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Cook Political Report polling differs, showing presidential, Senate races tighten

Another survey of Wisconsinites by the Cook Political Report shows similar results in both races. In the race for the Whitehouse, the poll shows 48 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Harris with 46 percent saying they would vote for Trump. That’s a notable shift from Cook’s August survey of Wisconsin voters, which showed Harris ahead of Trump by 5 percentage points.

The poll also indicates significant tightening in the race between Baldwin and Hovde since August. The survey results, released Oct. 2, show 49 percent of registered Wisconsinites saying they’ll vote for Baldwin and 47 percent saying they’ll vote for Hovde. The August poll released by Cook showed Baldwin with a 7-point lead. 

The Cook Political Report poll surveyed 2,941 voters across Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona between Sept. 19 and Sept. 25.