Political scientist reacts to newly-set Wisconsin congressional races

Last night’s primary elections locked in the contests for several of Wisconsin’s Congressional districts this November. 

Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, told WPR’s “Wisconsin Today” that last night’s results in the 8th Congressional District’s Republican primary show former President Donald Trump still has sway over the party. 

“It didn’t go one way or another last night for Trump-aligned candidates,” Chergosky said. “But Tony Wied’s victory in that Republican primary was clearly a victory for Trump and the Trump-endorsement factor.”

Chergosky looked ahead to general election matchups around the state, including in his own district in western Wisconsin. 

The following was edited for clarity and brevity.

Rob Ferrett: Last night’s primary set the Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District race as being between Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden and Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke. Do you expect there to be large, national funding in this race?

AC: Well, that was a sore spot for Democrats in 2022 because their nominee that year, Brad Pfaff, did not receive any national support from the Democratic Party, and he was badly outspent by Van Orden and the Republicans. 

I’ve heard that Democrats are interested in making investments into the effort to topple Van Orden. There are democratic-aligned political action committees and outside groups that have been interested in weighing in. And of course, there’s talk about the national Democratic Party getting involved this time around. So campaign funding will be very important as Rebecca Cooke tries to develop her political brand and as Democrats try to launch a negative campaign against Van Orden.

RF: Do you see any other districts as competitive?

AC: The 1st District is also on my list, with Republican incumbent Bryan Steil facing Democratic challenger Peter Barca. Now, Barca did not have a competitive Democratic primary. I’m not sure that this district will be as competitive as the 3rd District, because Steil is a more established incumbent than Van Orden is and because Steil is a very impressive fundraiser, he will have ample resources to run his campaign.

Still, Barca is a well known political figure in Wisconsin — particularly in that part of the state — so the 1st and the 3rd U.S. House Districts could be competitive, and the remaining six are unlikely to be all that competitive. 

RF: In the 8th District, Trump-critic Congressional Republican Mike Gallagher’s replacement is business owner Tony Wied. Wied received an endorsement from Donald Trump. What do you make of this switch?

AC: What struck me about the results from last night is that Trump’s endorsement was clearly decisive in determining the outcome of that primary election. The second place contender Roger Roth, a former member of the State Senate, was derided by Donald Trump as a RINO — or Republican In Name Only. So Trump was highly critical of Roth, he was highly supportive of Wied. 

And this is not the only time that we have seen Trump’s endorsement matter a lot in Republican primaries. I’m thinking in particular of the 2022 race for the Republican nomination for governor, where Trump’s endorsement arguably made the difference in helping Tim Michels become the Republican nominee over Rebecca Kleefisch. 

RF: As expected, last night confirmed that the race for U.S. Senate will be between Sen. Tammy Baldwin and businessman Eric Hovde. Baldwin’s last re-election campaign was a large win for her. Do you expect a closer race this time?

AC: I certainly do, because 2018 was a year that strongly favored Democrats. Tammy Baldwin decisively defeated her Republican challenger, Leah Vukmir. This time around, it seems like the electoral environment favors a closer race.

Still, Tammy Baldwin is on track to outspend her Republican rival Eric Hovde. In order to keep pace, Hovde is going to have to continue dipping into his bank account. He’ll have to continue putting in millions of dollars of his own money into the race if he hopes to keep up with Baldwin.