Vice President Kamala Harris has closed the polling gap with former President Donald Trump among Wisconsin voters, according to polls taken since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
“What we’re seeing is that voters under the age of 50, independents and ethnic minorities, especially African American voters, are swinging back towards the Democratic party,” said Matt Taglia, a senior director at Emerson College polling.
Emerson’s poll is one of several that show Harris leading Trump when voters are asked to choose between the two. A survey conducted July 22-23 showed Harris leading Trump 51-49, within the poll’s margin of error.
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When other candidates were included in the question, Harris and Trump were tied 45-45, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting 3 percent support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1 percent.
“She changed the dynamics of the race substantially. She moved five points in the margin in Wisconsin, and so I don’t think we necessarily need to wait to see what changes are taking effect as a result of Harris on the ticket,” Taglia said.
Still, with an expected vice presidential announcement in the next several days and the Democratic National convention in less than two weeks, he said it will take some time to get a firmer sense of how the race has changed.
“Labor Day is going to mark that point where the two sides should be on roughly equal footing in the news cycle, and it also marks the point where voters start to really tune in more typically,” Taglia said.
Emerson’s prior poll, conducted July 15-16, showed Trump leading Biden 48-43 in a two candidate race. With others included, Trump was still ahead 46-43 at that time.
Biden dropped out of the race July 21. Taglia said Emerson’s most recent poll was conducted days later, when Harris becoming the nominee “was a distinct possibility, but it was not necessarily a fact at that point.”
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted July 24-28 showed Harris beating Trump 49-47 percent in Wisconsin when voters were asked to choose between the two candidates. When independent and third party candidates were added, Trump led 45-44. Kennedy got 6 percent support, with 3 percent supporting Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver.
Kathleen Dolan, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said many Democrats were dispirited with Biden’s debate performance and concerns about whether he had the stamina to run a successful campaign.
“I think she provides in many ways a breath of fresh air as a Black woman,” Dolan said of Harris. “Her candidacy certainly energizes Black voters in a way that President Biden just wasn’t exciting them, even though they have stood fast with him for years. I think all of the things that are different about her candidacy are really exciting the base.”
A nationwide average of polls from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter had Trump ahead 47-46 on Wednesday, while FiveThirtyEight’s average has Trump up by 2.3 percent nationally.
Marquette University Law School announced Wednesday that its new Wisconsin poll will be released on August 7.
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