Warm, dry weather sparks hundreds more wildfires than normal

Wisconsin has seen around 250 more wildfires this year than the average for the last decade as the state faces high fire danger due to dry, warm weather.

More than 1,000 wildfires have consumed over 2,400 acres so far this year, according to data from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. The 10-year average for this time of year is 772 wildfires, with an average of under 1,800 acres burned.

In the past week, there were 82 wildfires reported in the state, and Army National Guard helicopters are on standby to assist with fire suppression. While it’s not uncommon to see a spike in wildfires during the fall, DNR Wildfire Prevention Specialist Catherine Koele said the blazes are being driven by warmer weather, gusty winds and dry conditions.

“We need some really good soaking rain events or some snow to really kind of put this fire season at bay,” Koele said.

This year, the state has spent just under $800,000 on fire suppression, over $200,000 more than the average for the last decade. Around 600 agency staff are trained and maintain wildland fire qualifications, which includes those involved in firefighting and incident management.

In recent days, Koele said they’ve seen larger fires that have been sparked by equipment, such as lawnmowers and recreational vehicles like ATVs and UTVs. Typically, around one-third of fires are caused by debris burning, which are reported more quickly. With fires sparked by equipment, she said they may go undetected until people see smoke.

Right now, Koele said they’re seeing more fires that are smoldering into the root systems of trees as leaves almost create a cap on top, which burn longer and take more time to extinguish.

“We don’t see it until it kind of rears its ugly head with some smoke, so it does take a lot of water and a lot of resources to put these fires that we’re seeing out right now,” Koele said.

The DNR is urging people to avoid outdoor burning and operating vehicles on dry grass, as well as use equipment early or late in the day. People are also encouraged to take steps to avoid igniting fires from equipment, such as securing trailer chains that could create sparks while driving.

As the climate warms, the state has grown more vulnerable to wildfires

As temperatures warm, climate scientists say the state is increasingly vulnerable to wildfires, according to a report from the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts. That comes as the state is seeing less rain in northern Wisconsin. That stresses forests and makes for longer growing seasons and vegetation that dries out at a faster rate in the spring and summer due to less snowpack.

State Climatologist Steve Vavrus said Wisconsin is averaging around four degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. The statewide average for this time of year is 48 degrees. That follows what was the third warmest September on record with an average temperature around 64 degrees or 5.6 degrees warmer than the last three decades.

“We’re shooting upward in drought conditions now,” Vavrus said. “In terms of the magnitude, we’re right back where we were a year ago, which is remarkable considering that only a month ago drought conditions emerged anywhere in Wisconsin.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday shows all of the state is abnormally dry and 77 percent is experiencing moderate drought. Almost one-third of the state, primarily in northwestern and northeastern Wisconsin, has severe drought conditions.

“As our climate warms, we expect to see more of these abnormally warm conditions,” Vavrus said. “There’s also evidence that with climate change, we’re likely to have more of these flip flops between too wet and too dry.”

Vavrus noted Wisconsin saw a soggy start to the summer that has since slipped into drought conditions that haven’t relented. That’s helped farmers, who have harvested crops weeks ahead of schedule. At the same time, it reduces forage for livestock. Without rain or snow, dry conditions could make it harder to till up land for spring planting next year.

Compared to the same time last year, Vavrus said wildfire risk is also increasing rather than dying down. Even so, NOAA’s winter outlook forecasts that the Great Lakes region is leaning toward wetter than normal weather for December, January and February.

However, Vavrus noted La Niña has been slower to develop than normal. The climate pattern that causes waters in the Pacific Ocean to be cooler than normal is typically associated with above-normal snowfall in the Great Lakes region. But Vavrus said precipitation can vary widely across the region.

“That’s why I say I wouldn’t get our hopes up if you’re looking for a wet winter,” Vavrus said. “But at this point, a wet winter would really benefit us, because we are so dry right now.”