With the Legislature in flux, a western Wisconsin district is — once again —pivotal

When political strategists eye districts they hope to win, they’ll assign a number based on how many percentage points previous candidates won by.

“Trump +4” for an area that former President Donald Trump won by four points, for example. Or “Evers +3” for an area that Gov. Tony Evers captured by three. It’s a way of gauging how a particular party, message or set of values may resonate in a given area.

Rep. Steve Doyle, D-Onalaska, has a joke about his 94th Assembly District: It’s a Biden +9.

“That would be (by) nine votes,” according to Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, a nod to the tiny, every-individual-vote-counts mentality that it takes to win this battleground region within a battleground state.

This year, the district is once again a toss-up — a pick-up opportunity for Republicans who are likely to lose other seats due to redistricting, and a must-win for Democrats’ goal of gaining a majority in a chamber where they’ve recently been outnumbered nearly 2-to-1 for years.

In his reelection bid, Doyle faces a familiar opponent: Ryan Huebsch, an energy lobbyist and former state Capitol staffer whose father, Mike, held the same seat for years, including two as Assembly Speaker. Ryan Huebsch narrowly lost to Doyle in 2022.

So the circumstances of their rematch are much the same, but the stakes have flipped. Two years ago, Wisconsin Republicans were vying to win a two-thirds majority in the Legislature, which would have made them impervious to a governor’s veto. Doyle’s victory helped Democrats narrowly stave off that threat. This time around, it’s Democrats who are vying for a majority in the Assembly, with eyes on a possible takeover of the Legislature in two years’ time.  

“I would describe this as a very unique situation, because the fundamentals of the race are unchanged from two years ago. The overall theme of the race is the same, the evenly divided nature of it is the same, the high-dollar nature of it is the same,” said Anthony Chergosky, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse who himself lives in the district.

“So even though the politics of the state Assembly have been completely shaken up on the whole, this district is exactly where it was two years ago — a highly competitive, pivotal election.”

New Legislative maps changed up the stakes of state elections

Before Wisconsin’s legislative maps were redrawn to be less disproportionately favorable to Republicans earlier this year, the 94th district was already highly competitive.   

Under new maps drawn by Gov. Tony Evers and adopted by the GOP-held state Legislature earlier this year, the district encompasses parts of La Crosse and Trempealeau counties, including a northern slice of the city of La Crosse, the cities of Onalaska and Galesville and rural surrounding towns and villages.

In the course of adopting new maps, two other La Crosse-area districts became more favorable to Democrats. But not the 94th.

“It is quite interesting that this district was very competitive in 2022 (and) is going to be very competitive again this year, despite the fact that the boundaries have somewhat changed,” said Chergosky.

That represents a rare opportunity for Republicans to grab an additional seat as they face losses in districts that weren’t previously competitive.

“Steve Doyle barely beat Ryan Huebsch up there in the 94th … two years ago, and now Ryan Huebsch is running again, running a strong campaign, well-funded, and we feel confident that Ryan’s going to win this time around,” Assembly Majority Leader Tyler August, R-Lake Geneva, previously told WPR.

Doyle’s journey to the seat follows a partisan back-and-forth that reflects the region’s political makeup. Mike Huebsch — Ryan’s father — held the seat until Republican Gov. Scott Walker appointed him to lead the Wisconsin Department of Administration. When he vacated the seat, Doyle won a special election to replace him in 2011, and has narrowly retained that seat ever since.

The 2022 matchup between Doyle and the younger Huebsch was close. Doyle won by just over 750 votes, or about 2.5 percentage points. According to an analysis by Marquette University, the district leans Republican overall. But in 2022, it would have been won by both Evers and Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.

Neither Doyle nor Huebsch responded to a request for comment on this story.

Doyle previously told WPR that his top priorities are addressing consumer costs and creating a bipartisan tax cut. He also said that new maps represent a chance for both parties to “move to the middle,” rather than an opportunity for a full Democratic takeover.

“I represent a district that leans Republican. Just because the official Republican Party would like this seat currently held by a Democrat doesn’t mean that my constituents have abandoned me,” he said.

But both parties clearly see opportunity in this race, and that’s reflected in the enormous money flooding into the area. Doyle had raised about $1.4 million through Oct. 21 while Huebsch had raised about $473,000.

More recently, the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee has sent about $575,000 to Doyle’s campaign, which spent about $1 million in the second half of the year, while Huebsch’s campaign spent about $155,000 in the same timeframe, according to recent campaign filings.

Chergosky, the political scientist, said his own mailbox has been inundated with dozens of mailers related to this campaign, praising and attacking each candidate in turn.

“I am not joking that my household has gotten at least 30, maybe 40, mailers in this … one race,” he said, adding that YouTube and television ads have also been relentless. “That’s not something you see every day, right?”