Wisconsin political scientists react to Biden’s withdrawal from presidential race

President Biden’s announcement that he’s dropping his bid for reelection puts the 2024 presidential race in uncharted territory just weeks before the Democratic National Convention. But his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place on the ticket may be giving the party a clearer next step. 

Lilly Goren is a professor of political science and global studies at Carroll University in Waukesha. She told WPR’s “Wisconsin Today” the Democratic Party is rallying behind Vice President Harris.

“We’ve seen close to 200 people — who are Democratic officials or former elected officials — who have endorsed Vice President Harris,” Goren said. “We’ve seen this massive fundraising haul that transpired immediately following the announcement from President Biden.”

Marquette University Political Science Professor Julia Azari said the decision to leave came down to concerns over Biden’s age.

“I think that that very much was driving what’s happened,” Azari said. “We’ll see the extent to which that was really driving the larger voter intent polls. … Harris — who is a little more than 20 years younger than President Biden — will she be able to present a different kind of ticket and will that make up some of that difference? I think we’ll see that going forward.”

If Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, who will be her running mate?

If Harris is selected as the Democratic nominee for president, she’ll need to select a vice presidential candidate of her own. The short list includes Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Goren said a running mate would likely be someone who presents as a “regular person.”

“My expectation … is that it’s probably going to be somebody who has elective experience, who has somewhat of a national profile, and is likely to fit into the ticket in terms of not being too young and not being too old,” she said. “It’s a kind-of Goldilocks look.”

Azari said Harris’ choice of running mate could matter, but not in the way some people may think.

“Rarely do these kinds of targeted appeals work as well as we might expect them to for (appealing to the) Midwest or for gender or for a religious group. But it does reflect the presidential candidate’s judgment,” Azari said. “And especially for Harris, this will really be with all eyes on her. Assuming it’s Harris, it will be her first big decision in front of the electorate. And so it’ll really show what she values and highlights in that ticket.”

Among the likely candidates for a Kamala Harris presidential ticket, Azari predicts that Sen. Kelly could be her choice.

“His experience does make him quite ready to be part of the administration and be president, should that situation come to pass,” Azari said. “And he’s well-enough known that I think he won’t draw the kind of media scrutiny that a lesser known candidate might.”

Push toward an ‘open convention’ likely quashed

In the initial hours after President Biden’s announcement, a number of elected Democrats, including Montana U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, pushed for an open nominating process. But Goren said the support Vice President Harris received has likely stymied any push for an open convention.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen, given everything that I’ve been seeing in terms of the coalescing around Vice President Harris as the nominee,” Goren said. “And you do see a lot of folks who might have been challengers have come in and endorsed Harris, which suggests that they are not going to run against her for the nomination at this point.”