Wisconsin’s population expected to decline by nearly 200K residents come 2050 

A new projection from the state found Wisconsin’s population is expected to decline by nearly 200,000 residents by 2050.

That’s largely due to declining birth rates and the aging of baby boomers, according to a Wisconsin Department of Administration report.

In 2020, the state’s population was 5,893,718. By 2050, that number is expected to decrease to 5,710,120 — a decline of 183,598 residents. The report found the decline is largely due to the “changing age distribution” in Wisconsin.

“In coming decades, Wisconsin’s largest generation, the baby boomers, will enter higher-mortality age groups,” the report said.

The projection expects the state’s population to remain stable from 2020 to 2030. It’s then expected to decrease around 1 percent from 2030 to 2040, and just over 2 percent from 2040 to 2050. 

If the state were to maintain its population, it would “require a large unforeseen shift,” according to the report. That could be a “large decrease in mortality; a large increase in fertility,” or an increase in new migration to the state. 

John Johnson, a researcher at Marquette University Law School, called the projection “sobering.” 

“Anyone who’s looked at birth statistics knows that people in Wisconsin are having fewer and fewer babies, and we’re not a hot spot for migration,” Johnson told WPR.

Wisconsin’s population growth has stalled in recent years. A 2021 report from Forward Analytics found that from 2010 to 2020, Wisconsin’s population increased by 3.6 percent. That’s the smallest increase in any 10-year period in the state’s history, according to the Forward Analytics report. 

Dale Knapp, the director of Forward Analytics, said the state projections aren’t necessarily surprising to him.

“The only way that we’re going to see some of these numbers turn around is people moving here, people coming to Wisconsin from other states or other countries,” Knapp said.

Knapp said population decline will add to the state’s workforce shortage. That could be worse in the northern part of the state, Knapp said, where the projection found 16 counties across the state are expected to see a 15 percent or more population decline by 2050.

“Many of them are tourist counties,” Knapp said. “The workforce challenge is going to be enormous.” 

Johnson also said there will be a higher demand for services for older people in the coming years as more Baby Boomers retire.

“Those services will be harder to provide, because there will be fewer working age people to provide for them,” Johnson said. 

The projected population will be more pronounced in some counties across the state because they have different age distributions, according to the report. In Milwaukee County, the population is expected to decrease from 939,489 residents in 2020, to 851,605 residents in 2050 — a 9 percent decrease.

“Reports like this should motivate policymakers to increase investments that make Wisconsin an attractive destination of choice,” Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley said in a statement in response to the projections. 

That projection comes as Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson has a lofty goal to increase the city’s population to 1 million residents.

Smaller counties in the state are also expected to see population declines. The report developed population projections for the state by using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The population in Adams County is expected to decline from 20,654 residents in 2020 to 14,650 residents in 2050. Forest County’s population is expected go from 9,179 residents in 2020 to 6,785 residents in 2050. Waukesha County’s population is expected to decline from 406,978 residents in 2020 to 380,010 residents in 2050.

“Some of the declines that we are expected to see … are bigger than we thought,” Knapp said.

Meanwhile, Dane County’s population is expected to grow from 561,504 residents in 2020, to 779,265 in 2050 — a 38 percent increase. 

Nationally, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting the population will increase from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. 

According to the state’s projection, total fertility rates across the nation were roughly 3.2 to 4.1 from 1950 to 1965, which led to the baby boom generation.

The report found “stable population” generally occurs when total fertility rates are around the 2.04 to 2.09 range. But Wisconsin’s total fertility rates have been around the 1.6 to 1.9 range from 1975 to 2020, according to the report.