Wisconsin US Senate race rating moves to toss up

Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race ranking between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde has shifted from leaning Democrat to a toss up by the Cook Political Report. The change comes as some recent polling shows Baldwin’s lead shrinking, while Republican groups spend millions to bolster Hovde’s chances.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin has led Republican business executive Eric Hovde in every poll of Wisconsin voters this year, aside from a tie reported in late June. But over the last month, six out of 11 surveys have shown Baldwin’s lead falling to just 2 or 3 percentage points.

On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report switched their rating of the closely watched contest from “Lean D” to “Toss Up,” noting that with less than a month until the Nov. 5 election, the group’s Swing State Project survey shows “Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled.”

Jessica Taylor is the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report. She told WPR its most recent swing state polling, released Oct. 2, showed Baldwin only leading Hovde by 2 percentage points among Wisconsin voters and she’s heard from both campaigns that internal polling matches that.

“I think they ultimately knew that this is Wisconsin,” Taylor said. “It’s a very evenly divided, probably the closest to a 50-50 state as we have in the country, and that this race was going to tighten.”

She said Cook’s polling also shows Hovde consolidating his Republican support in the state and an 11-point swing among independent voters in his direction. Still, the Cook poll found Baldwin led Hovde among independents by a margin of 50-42 percent.

In a statement, Baldwin campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo said the “race was always going to be a toss up.”

“Next month, voters will reject California bank owner Eric Hovde’s insults, lies, and extreme policy positions and send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate to keep fighting for them,” Mamo said. 

A statement from Hovde campaign spokesperson Zach Bannon attacked what he called “Baldwin’s radical agenda” that he blamed for “record high inflation” and chaos at the southern border.

“Eric Hovde is going to win because the people of Wisconsin are ready for change,” Bannon said.

In response to the rating change, Baldwin took to social media to warn supporters that “national Republicans just dropped another $17M to help Eric Hovde buy this Senate seat.” In a follow-up post, she asked for campaign donations and said “polls are statistically tied in WI, and the window to retake our lead is closing.”

Baldwin was referring to the Senate Leadership Fund political action committee, which is aligned with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. On Sept. 30, the Wall Street Journal reported the PAC is planning to spend $17 million on ads attacking Baldwin in Wisconsin as part of a plan to crack Democrats “Blue Wall” in the final days of the race.

According to a social media post from the tracking firm AdImpact, Democratic groups have reserved $17.7 million dollars in future campaign advertisements in Wisconsin, while Republicans groups have reserved $15.7 million in future ads. Thus far, AdImpact reported a combined $79.5 million worth of political advertisements about the senate race have aired in Wisconsin.