After months of poll data showing the two candidates in a virtual tie, Republican incumbent Scott Walker has now taken a lead over the Democratic nominee Mary Burke in the race for governor according to the latest Marquette University Law School poll.
Walker is polling at 50 percent among registered voters who say they are likely to vote, while Burke is polling at 45 percent. Walker has held a lead over Burke in past Marquette polls, but that lead was always within the margin of error. The new five-point split is not, though a lead would need to be double the margin of error of 4.1 percent to be statistically significant.
Among all registered voters, Walker leads 46 to 45 percent.
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Pollster Charles Franklin noted that it’s the first time since March that either candidate has had a lead larger than the margin of error. Nevertheless, he said things can still change.
“I think it’s entirely possible we see small wobbles from today to Election Day,” said Franklin. “We’ve seen very little in terms of consistent trends across the course of the year.”
The poll shows that there’s a notable split in support for Walker and Burke along gender lines: Walker is now ahead by 28 percent among likely male voters, while Burke is up 14 percent among likely female voters. Franklin again said that could change before November.
“You think of the gender gap as something that’s extremely stable, but it actually has changed quite a bit over the course of the campaign — and it could change again,” he said.
Franklin also said that Walker is ahead by 13 points among independents, perhaps boosted by his overall gains in the northern and western parts of the state. Franklin cautioned that Mitt Romney won independents in the 2012 presidential election, but lost the contest to President Barack Obama.
Franklin also said that Mary Burke is slightly ahead among people who identify as moderates.
In the race for attorney general, Republican Brad Schimel leads Democrat Susan Happ among likely voters, 41 to 39 percent. Among registered voters, the two are tied at 39 percent.
Exactly 801 registered voters across Wisconsin were surveyed for the poll over the phone last week. Of those surveyed, 585 said they were likely to vote.
Editor’s Note: This story has been updated as Wisconsin Public Radio learns more information.
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