Recall Rematch Raises The Stakes For Minority Leader Shilling’s Re-Election Bid

State Sen. Jennifer Shilling just finished her first full term representing the 32nd District in western Wisconsin. But the La Crosse Democrat is far from being a novice, having served as Senate Minority Leader for the last two years.

“Certainly more of a statewide presence that I have taken the last couple years as being kind of the voice and the face of our leadership of our caucus,” Shilling said. “Making sure that I’m out there both with my legislative responsibilities, but also the campaign responsibilities fall to me.”

Joe Heim, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said Shilling has several qualities that make her a fairly safe candidate for re-election.

“She’s pretty well-known in the district, she’s well-liked, she’s run before so she’s a known quantity,” Heim said. “You can’t identify some votes or some things that she’s made some major mistakes at, there’s no personal gaffes of any kind.”

But even with these advantages, this year’s race is definitely not a normal election for Shilling.

Former Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke is back to challenge Shilling for his old seat. Kapanke represented the district for six years before being recalled over his support for Act 10, the controversial bill pushed by Republican Gov. Scott Walker that all but eliminated collective bargaining rights for public employees.

Kapanke lost the 2011 recall election to Shilling, but he denies that that history is a motivating factor in his bid to reclaim the seat.

“Some people from the other side, I think I even heard the senator say that this is a grudge match for me because I was taken out by her in 2011 and that’s not the case at all,” Kapanke said.

But past grudges aside, Heim, the political scientist, said a GOP win in the district would be symbolic for state Republicans.

“If you can knock off the leadership of the opponent party, it’s one of the major victories that you can have,” Heim said.

With Wisconsin Democrats looking to pick up seats in the Senate this November, Heim said Republicans could be looking for their own potential wins.

There’s some doubts as to whether an upset is truly possible. Heim said the most recent redistricting process gave incumbent legislators across the state sizeable advantages against their opposing party.

“To be blunt, what that means is most of the Democrats and most Republicans are safe in safe districts,” Heim said.

The 32nd Senate District, which includes all or parts of La Crosse, Vernon, Crawford and Monroe counties, became more Democratic after the redistricting process.

But Heim said Kapanke’s role in this year’s race has made it more competitive than normal, which could be enough to keep Shilling busy and unable to campaign for her fellow Democrats.

“(Shilling) cannot go running around to all over the state to give speeches and try to raise money on behalf of other Democratic candidates,” he said. “This has an effect on the party over all.”

Heim said there’s also a possibility Shilling will run for governor in 2018, another reason Republicans might want to knock her out of office.

Asked about that possibility, Shilling said she never looks past the current election.

Neither candidate has spent a lot of time talking about their previous race either. Tensions were high in 2011 and the state was as polarized as it had ever been. But Kapanke said that hasn’t been the case this year.

“It’s been real civil out here relative to the five years ago when the recalls were taking place,” Kapanke said.

Shilling said she wasn’t surprised to see Kapanke on the ballot, but she doesn’t want to get caught up in the past.

“I think the voters have a long memory,” Shilling said.

It’s hard to tell what’s real and what’s spin during political campaigns, and whether a district is truly competitive or not. But interest groups on both sides of the aisle have bought campaign ads in the district, including a radio ad against Shilling from a national Republican group.

These ads, and Kapanke’s candidacy, may not make a difference in a district that leans Democratic by the numbers. But they do have people paying attention to a race that might otherwise be an easy one for Shilling.