UW Forum Panelist Says Final Gubernatorial Election Results May Not Be Close

Panelists on a polling forum at the University of Wisconsin-Madison on Monday said the final vote in the race for governor might or might not be as close as surveys suggest.

Among those speaking at the forum organized by the Madison weekly newspaper the Capital Times and the UW Political Science Department was Democratic pollster Paul Maslin, who said the race for governor may very well be tight, but that Wisconsin’s recent history suggests it might not finish that way. Maslin notes the state’s last six major statewide races were all decided by more than 100,000 votes.

“Do not be shocked if the outcome in two weeks is not 1 point or 2 points,” said Maslin. “We haven’t had a real barnburner close election in this state for a decade.”

Maslin said that contrary to popular opinion, there are voters who change their minds in Wisconsin, and they may yet break for Gov. Scott Walker or Democratic challenger Mary Burke before Election Day.

Marquette University’s Charles Franklin oversees the Marquette University Law School poll, which most recently showed both Walker and Burke polling at 47 percent among self-identified likely voters. Franklin said polls are generally pretty accurate.

“If the polls are predictive, it’s because when we talk to people, they tell us what they’re going to do, and then they go and do it,” Franklin said. “It’s not that the polls drove them to do it.”

Regardless of whether polls affect voters, UW-Madison journalism professor Michael Wagner said that they do affect media coverage.

“When it’s a close election, we hear about who’s going to win and why, and where are soccer moms and where are NASCAR dads and all these things that have nothing to do with what it’s like to be president and govern or be governor and govern,” said Wagner. “So a peculiar consequence of a close race is that we learn less of the information we might want to know to make the race less close.”

Conversely, Wagner said that media spend more time talking about where candidates stand on issues when races are perceived to be blowouts.