Exploring Airfare Trends in 2016 (And Other Travel Tips)

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• Expect Airfare Hikes Around Certain Dates, Analyst Says

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  According to the CEO and co-founder of FareCompare, there are a few days each year where it pays to watch out for airfare price jumps.

  Those days — which Rick Seaney calls “magic dates” — are days when prices jump anywhere from 5 to 15 percent incrementally in terms of airfare costs. The dates themselves change from year to year, but are typically seasonal.

  This year, Seaney said, the magic dates are March 17, which loosely corresponds with Spring Break; May 17, which is around the time weather improves; and June 10, when students get out of school.

  “At each one of those breaks, prices go up dramatically,” Seaney said.

  Seaney also mentioned another date, Aug. 23, when consumers will see prices start to decline.

  “The prices start to drop dramatically, all the way back, unrolling those three increases that occur,” he said. “So if you can fly after August, on the 23rd or after, you’re going to see a big drop in prices.”

  Basically, it means the last day to depart and pay cheaper winter prices is March 16, according to Seaney’s blog post, “Magic Dates: Cheapest Days to Fly in 2016.” The last day to enjoy cheaper spring airfare before pre-summer prices start is May 16, and June 9 is the last date to fly before the highest peak-summer prices get in motion.

  As for those who expected ticket prices to go down because of what’s happening with oil prices, that hasn’t been the case, Seaney said. In recent weeks, consumers saw a airfare hike by major airlines that control 80 percent of traffic.

  “The main reason for that is that demand is still pretty good,” he said.

  Seaney also a large number of airlines have merged or gone out of business over the last few years.

  “Consumers are starting to see what really happens when four airlines control a huge chunk of traffic,” he said.

  Overall, Seaney expects to see more people flying and doesn’t expect prices on average to rise much, according to his blog post “Air Travel Forecast for 2016.”