Warming trends in Wisconsin are upending winter activities and ways of life

With the sun blinding overhead, Hayward’s Steven Menk skied along loops near the trailhead for the American Birkebeiner Ski Race as temperatures hovered far below freezing in Cable last week.

“I haven’t missed a Birkie since 1985, and there’s no sense in starting now,” Menk said.

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“As soon as Thanksgiving comes around, the Turkey Birkie, we’re on the manmade snow,” he said.

Ben Popp, executive director of the American Birkebeiner Ski Foundation, points out loops where they’ve made snow as he walks past the Birkie trailhead. They’ve installed a water line along trails near the old Telemark Lodge, which was torn down last year. The line draws from wells formerly used to make snow for downhill skiing at the iconic ski resort that closed after financial struggles.

Snowmaking is something Birkie officials hadn’t seriously considered until they were forced to call off North America’s largest cross-country ski race in 2017. Warm weather and rain canceled the event for only the second time in its nearly 50-year run. Officials offered a virtual race last year due to the pandemic.

“I think the foundation took a real hard look at what do we have to do with changing climate … to really make sure that this always happens, because it was really devastating to have the race canceled,” Popp said.

The Birkie contributes a roughly $20 million economic impact in the region.

Popp said they’ve spent around $500,000 on snowmaking equipment since 2017. He estimates it may cost four times that to reach a point where they could hold some sort of race in a year without real snow.

That may seem unlikely after more than 2 feet of snow fell in parts of northern Wisconsin this week. But winter has warmed twice as fast as other seasons in Wisconsin, according to a report released this month by the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts.

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Scientists say the last two decades have been the warmest on record in Wisconsin.

Among them is Steve Vavrus, a senior scientist with the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“No season has been immune to the warming trend,” he said. “Winter has warmed the most. That has been true in the past, and it’s expected to be true in the future.”

The warming trend is affecting winter activities and ways of life, including the Birkie that will draw 13,000 skiers this weekend.

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Vavrus noted winter precipitation has increased 20 percent since 1950 as it’s grown warmer and wetter. The last decade was Wisconsin’s wettest on record. Extreme storms have caused multiple floods that led to hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

In the winter, precipitation is falling more frequently as rain or freezing rain rather than snow, as seen in southeastern Wisconsin this week.

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John McCarthy, a board member with Friends of Lapham Peak, said that’s the trend they’ve seen at Kettle Moraine State Forest in Waukesha County. Since 2004, the nonprofit group has spent $1.2 million on snowmaking for 2.4 kilometers of cross-country ski trails.

“Without that consistency, it’s very hard to generate interest or keep people involved,” McCarthy said.
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Jared Johnson, a member of the Ebony Ice Ski Club in Milwaukee, said they’ve struggled to attract members. The organization strives to promote equity, financial support and opportunities for Black youth to learn and compete in winter sports such as downhill skiing and snowboarding.

He said their membership has declined along with the window to hit the slopes in southern Wisconsin. Johnson said warmer weather can create riskier conditions that deter skiers. As ski areas rely more on snowmaking to stay open, increased costs may be passed on to visitors.

“It’s much more costly to go skiing either locally or out West than it was in the past,” Johnson said. “But, it has become almost unaffordable.”

As people see less snow or opportunities where they live, Popp said fewer people from southern Wisconsin take part in the Birkie.

“If we do not have infrastructure like that where the people are … then people can’t do it,” Popp said.

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He said opportunities are expanding. He pointed to a Nordic skiing center in Brillion being built by Ariens Company.

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But it’s not just winter sports or tourism-based businesses that are affected by warmer winters.

Other industries have been forced to adapt.

For loggers, milder winters mean fewer days with frozen ground that supports heavy equipment used to harvest timber without damaging wetlands.

On the other hand, warmer winters could boost cargo shipments on the Great Lakes. Researchers at UW-Superior are studying the effects of less ice cover on the shipping industry. The season typically runs from the end of March through mid-January.

“If we were able to see year-round shipping on the Great Lakes, and here at the Port of Duluth-Superior, that would have big implications for supply chain opportunities,” Deb DeLuca, executive director of the Duluth Seaway Port Authority, said. “The seasonality of the system right now limits some of the cargoes that we can carry.”

Yet, less ice cover may also mean more evaporation that leads to lower water levels, which could restrict cargo shipments.
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That can lead to significant changes in lake ecology that could affect popular fish like walleye and set the stage for more blue-green algae blooms to form on Lake Superior.

Warmer winters have already affected people living on Lake Superior’s Madeline Island. The ice road that connects island residents to Bayfield on the mainland has been open about 45 fewer days in the last 150 years.

Mike Radtke, operations manager of the Madeline Island Ferry Line, said they’ve operated all year at times in the last two decades. That’s strained their ability to plan maintenance and increased wear and tear on equipment as they operate longer. Radtke said the unpredictability of winter is the biggest stressor, especially for island residents.

“Their lives are impacted directly by climate change and how they can plan and do the things they need to do, and it’s probably going to be more so in the future,” Radtke said.
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The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission has identified wild rice, or manoomin, as the species most vulnerable to climate change. The commission found ice cover in the winter sets up conditions to help the seed emerge in the spring, as well as prevent competition from invasive species.

Jon Gilbert, the commission’s biological services director, noted manoomin is central to Ojibwe tribes’ migration story. Wisconsin’s changing climate threatens irreversible effects.

“The reason why the Ojibwe are even here in this area is because of wild rice,” Gilbert said. “So, what’s the adaptation? How do you adapt to no wild rice?”

With milder winters, Bad River Tribal Chair Mike Wiggins Jr. said he’s not seeing large deer migrations, or large gatherings of deer in one area. He’s also observed sap flowing earlier from sugar maples in February that’s typically collected in late winter or early spring.

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Scientists have urged steps to zero out emissions from fossil fuels and limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to stave off the worst effects of climate change.

Popp said the Birkie is looking to expand snowmaking and power their operations with 100 percent renewable energy by 2026. They’re also limiting use of unrecycled material, reducing waste and inviting race participants to offset their carbon footprint.

Popp admits those steps are small in the grand scheme of things.

“Our stance is everybody can do a little bit, and then something big will happen,” he said.

He and others hope action taken together will ensure people can take part in the sport and preserve Wisconsin’s ways of life far into the future.

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